The single European currency has recently come close several times to the level of $ 1.50, but it has not been able to overcome this important psychological barrier. Moreover, experts note that in the next few months you can’t expect the euro to grow and the mark of $ 1.40 will be more likely than $ 1.50.
Moreover, if we analyze the latest fluctuations in the European currency, we can conclude that while the most likely indicators will be between 1.44 dollars and 1.4650 dollars, analysts say. “And if the single eurozone currency drops to the level of 1.4310 dollars, then we can most likely expect a further bearish trend in the euro market. Moreover, no one will be surprised if in the near future they will give about 1.39 dollars for one euro,” – say economists at BNP Paribas. Analysts at Goldman Sachs, Danske Bank, Brown Brothers Harriman, Citigroup, and HSBC also share this view.
And economists at Morgan Stanley generally insist that the eurozone currency will fall to $ 1.32 by the end of 2008. “We can expect that the decline in the dollar against the euro and the British pound is over,” said Bill Gross, lead investment manager at Pacific Investment Management Company. “The dollar will remain rather weak only in relation to the currencies of Asian and developing countries.” Most analysts are also convinced that the entry of the US economy into the recession zone may not have the best effect on the eurozone currency. “The fact is that if the US economy enters a recession, economic growth in other developed countries, in particular in Europe, will also slow down. And this environment can be extremely favorable for the dollar,” said Robert Kovit, fund manager of Federated Investors. Most economists share this view. In their opinion, the recession of the US economy cannot but affect the states of the eurozone due to the strong dependence of the latter on exports.
On November 23, 2007, the euro reached a record high of $ 1.4966, but the psychological barrier of $ 1.50 was not overcome. Today, February 12, the ratio between European and American currencies is 1 euro: $ 1.4545, while a day ago, as of 10:00, about 1.4540 dollars were paid for 1 euro. Therefore, compared with February 11, the European currency strengthened against the US currency in the world market by 0.03%.